Strategic Thinking

Most strategic conversations produce more confusion than clarity. Teams discuss “disruption” and “adjacencies” without shared definitions. Slide decks multiply. The path forward remains opaque.

I practice what I call Strategic Simplification: the discipline of cutting through complexity to find the through-line that makes action possible. This isn’t about dumbing things down—it’s about doing the hard work of compression until only what matters remains.

What I Do Here

Toy models for real problems. Physicists use simplified models—spherical cows—to understand complex systems before adding nuance. I bring this approach to business problems: start with the simplest version that captures the essential dynamics, then add complexity only where it earns its keep. The goal is a mental model you can actually use, not a comprehensive framework you’ll forget.

Finding the floor. Every viable system has a minimal configuration—the point below which it stops being that thing. Before adding features, processes, or strategy layers, I help identify what’s actually necessary. What’s the smallest version that works? Start there. Everything else can evolve.

Navigating unknown unknowns. The biggest strategic risks aren’t the ones you’re tracking—they’re the ones you haven’t thought to look for. I help move the streetlight: systematically illuminating the territory around your current assumptions to surface what you might be missing.

Where I help

You’re drowning in complexity and can’t find the through-line. I work with you to strip away the noise until the essential structure becomes visible. You get a simpler model of your situation—one you can explain in a few sentences and actually use to make decisions.

Your strategy conversations feel like theater. I help distinguish between strategy that sounds impressive and strategy that actually constrains action. You get clarity on what you’re really deciding, what you’re trading off, and what would have to be true for your approach to work.

You’re facing genuine uncertainty and need a way to think through it. I bring frameworks for reasoning under uncertainty—real options thinking, scenario mapping, structured ways of surfacing assumptions. You get a process for making decisions when the answer isn’t obvious.

Resources

Spherical Cows introduces the toy model approach—using simplified versions to understand complex systems before adding nuance.

The Simplest Things explores minimal viable configurations across domains, from synthetic biology to business models.

Simplification traces the philosophy from Aristotle through Einstein to Jack Welch—and why achieving simplicity is harder than it looks.

Knowing What We Do Not Know addresses Meno’s Paradox and the challenge of searching for things you don’t yet know to look for.

Let’s talk about bringing clarity to your strategic challenge.